Saturday, September 27, 2008

Climate Change denialists are so Wrong

There was a debate on TV last year about climate change and afterwards on the Internet you could log on and ask the scientists questions. One post said something like "I'm a 15 year old student and even I can see that the professor is wrong about Global Warming because we 've just had the heaviest frost ever and how can that mean theres global warming?" More recently Ive had conversations with sensible educated adults whove been equally ignorant about climate science but nevertheless expresssed equally sceptical views about it, rubbished Al Gore and his movie "An Inconvenient Truth" and repeated stuff they'd heard somewhere about how many cars he owns or claimed its just a scientific hoax or else its just part of the natural cycle of atmospheric events or whatever - this is actually no better than the ignorant 15 year old thinking he knew better than the learned professor - but just sounds a bit more impressive. Now I had seen the movie and been impressed by it but like most of us didnt really know anything else about Climate Science other than what I might have read in the papers and seen on TV. So I didnt feel qualified to disagree with the climate change sceptics and deniers - I felt pretty ignorant too. So Ive done a bit more reading and searching, and what Ive concluded is that Al Gore is right.

The first thing I realized was that Climate Deniers are an extreme minority, but they make a lot of noise, make arguments that are simple and sound plausible to most of us, and thereby create an impression that there is still an argument going on about whether or not Global Warming is happening and is a threat. The trouble is most of us are not scientists, and we can easily be impressed by glib arguments and have no way of knowing if theyre really valid. The same thing happens with creationists who try to give the impression that in Science there is still room for doubt about the fact of evolution : there is none - but which of us is actually qualified to know that, for example their often repeated claim that evolution must be wrong because human and dinosaur footprints can be found together is simply not true? There are also people who still believe that the Earth is Flat - its not- but try to unravel the arguments they make! There are others who believe that "9/11" was a US Government Conspiracy- try and argue against that monstrous lie and see where you get against fanatics whose agenda is not about Truth but about being Right!

As far as Global Warming is concerned, among scientists there are still many differences about specifics of Global Warming, but on one fundamental point there is near perfect unanimity : the main cause of a 0.75 degree rise in global temperature over recent decades is CO2 released from fossil fuel. The Chief scientific adviser to the British Government Sir David King wrote in the book "The Hot Topic " anybody who tells you differently either has a vested interest in ignoring the scientific arguments or they are fools"
So is the core of the issue for us non-climate scientists whether or not we can trust what the scientists are telling us? Well that at least is the way Climate denialists want us to view the issue, basically saying we shouldnt trust them, that rather we should listen to a tiny minority who insist that they are the only ones who really know whats going on. The odd thing of course is that most of us do trust what the Scientists have been telling us, and we've been doing it all our lives in just about everything that is part of modern life. So we live much longer and are much healthier because science discovered germs and identified diseases,worked out how the human body works, discovered blood groups and anaesthetics, insulin and penicillin and worked out how to make drugs to treat diabetes and hypetension and epilepsy. We use the phone, listen to the Radio, watch live sports from the other side of the world on TV, and cook dinner on the stove and the microwave because it was science that discovered electricity, radiowaves , satellite technology, microwaves and television; we travel all round the world because science discovered the jet engine, radar and the manmade materials that hold the planes and cars together; it was science that taught us about the history of the planet and the universe and the mysteries of the human body, and at the same time liberated us from the bonds of much ignorance superstition and fear. So forgive me if I declare my love of Science and my huge admiration for scientists and the scientific endeavour and what it has achieved in the last couple of centuries. The reality is that science works, and we demonstrate our faith in it everytime we answer the phone or turn on a light.
So what are they saying about global warming? Well this sounds extreme and unbelievable I know - but if nothing at all is done about carbon emissions, climate change will effectively destroy the entire human race before the end of this century. I'm going to repeat that : if nothing at all is done about carbon emissions, climate change will effectively destroy the entire human race before the end of this century. Lets say that one more time " IF NOTHING AT ALL IS DONE ABOUT CARBON EMISSIONS,CLIMATE CHANGE WILL EFFECTIVELY DESTROY THE ENTIRE HUMAN RACE BEFORE THE END OF THIS CENTURY"

The trouble with such a statement is that its too outrageous to be believable, yet climate change has resulted in mass extinctions before: the Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction over 250 million years ago wiped out 96% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial life. So no matter how shocking and unbeliveable it seems, its happened before and the science is telling us that its about to happen again. This means that a baby born today could witness the end of human civilisation! Thats how close it is, and is why in many circles there is a growing realisation that massive changes are going to be necessary to avoid such a crisis, the greatest crisis in the history of humanity- yes the GREATEST crisis in human history.
I might mention the Myths and misinformation the Climate denialists write about some other time. Its a massive topic. As is trying to work out what the hell we should be doing to try and get out of this mess. But I'm leaving the last word to a guy that posted a comment on a Denialists Blog :
The hundreds of tree hugging scientists are just plain wrong!We should be looking to the experts at Exon Mobil, OPEC, and the American automobile industry. All of them have done way more research and found that there is no such thing as global warming! Don't let a little bookworn, brainiac, geek like Al Gore scare you!

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